Trade in goods and services as a proportion of GDP

Following the Covid 19 pandemic, global trade is set to fall between 10 and 16 % according to the European Commission, and by 13-32 % according to the WTO (on the basis of a different methodological approach ). This exposes the vulnerability of the EU export-led growth model. Compared to key trade partners the USA and China, the EU is far more reliant on international trade as a proportion of its GDP (see Figure 3). For the EU, the trade proportion of the economy has also been increasing in the ‘slowbalisation’ period.