Official descriptions of the dual circulation model as ‘a new development pattern where domestic and foreign markets can boost each other, with the domestic market as the mainstay’ suggest that the Chinese leadership is now more decisively intent on giving a major role to ‘domestic circulation’ as a future growth driver. If China aspires to become a high-income country by 2022, that requires a gross national income (GNI) per capita of US$12 535 according to the World Bank (July 2020). Figure 4 shows that in 2019, China’s GNI per capita stood at $10 410, still very low compared with $41 690 for Japan and $65 760 for the US. China is seeking to avoid the middle-income trap, while prerequisites for growth are disappearing with China’s rapidly aging working population and rising wage levels, which have led to government-supported industrial offshoring to low-cost Asian neighbouring countries.
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